This paper proposes a simple empirical model, and presents a simple estimator, for expected currency exchange rates. The model attempts to find the expected value E(s) = µ_s for a currency exchange rate s for the current point in time. The model has conceptual similarity with the FEER and NATREX approaches, but also with MULTIMOD. It is emphasized, that the model is not attempting to forecast future exchange rates, but rather, the model attempts to find the expected value for an exchange rate for the current point in time. The expected value for an exchange rate is obtained by adjusting the spot rate by a "cumulative factor effect". The model provides a measure for currency misalignment as the difference between the expected exchange rate and the actual exchange rate (the spot rate). It is hypothesized, that there is an equilibrium exchange rate between two currencies, when countries with respect to fundamental underlyingeconomic, societal, and political factors, but also environmental factors, are in "balance" or at "equilibrium". The "balance" or "equilibrium" is not a specific known quantity, may never be achieved, and ideally may hold for an infinite number of variable value- and factor level combinations. Simple tests show that the modeling approach shows promise. The paper also provides additional support for the Meese and Rogoff (1983 [1], 1988 [2]) "random walk" model, and suggests that the continued search of exchange rate forecasting models are exercises in futility.